Late  News

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Reviews of Past Programs

September 16, 2011- Understanding the World's Water Crisis 

Tuesday June 28, 2011 - Pakistan

Teresita and Howard Schaffer, with a combined 60 years as diplomats in South Asia, and now Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Georgetown Professor, respectively, described  Pakistan-U.S. relations as having seen highs of close cooperation and lows of deep estrangement. The U.S. views Pakistan as a strategic partner in achieving global security; Pakistan wants the U.S. as counterweight to India. There have been three “marriages” and two “divorces.” Is there danger of a third “divorce”? Their latest book, How Pakistan negotiates with the United States: Riding the Roller Coaster, discusses the situation, and their website at southasiahand.com gives their analysis of current events in the region.

Friday, June 17, 2011 - Egypt After Mubarak

Robert Springborg, Ph.D., Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School described recent events in Egypt culminating in the fall from power of President Mubarak as demonstrating the strong commitment of the Egyptian people to freedom; the need to create more opportunities and jobs, particularly for the young; and a belief that a more democratic process will result in a better quality of life. But the road is probably very long and uncertain. He explained options and implications for these proud Egyptians.

May 25, 2011 - Yemen

Charles “Pat” Patterson, Mid-east specialist who recently served as head of the political and economic section in the U.S. embassy in Sana’a, Yemen, gave a short history of Yemen and an update on events in this turbulent region. Yemen commands the entrance from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and has vital strategic importance to the U.S. Terrorist cells remain a significant threat. Revolutionary fervor which spread from Tunis and Cairo in early 2011 continues to transform much of the Islamic world.

Friday, May 13, 2011 - Canada

Cassie Doyle, Canadian Consul General in San Francisco, discussed current Canada-U.S. relations, emphasizing our increasingly important energy relationship and the opportunities this presents for U.S. energy security given the situations facing other energy providers. She also described how the environmental challenges of Canada’s emerging role as energy powerhouse are being addressed. Canada and the U.S. have the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world, with energy more prominent as Canada has become America’s largest supplier of natural gas, hydro electricity, and oil.

April 28, 2011 - Mexico

Ambassador Carlos Felix Corona, Consul General of Mexico in San Francisco, described a long history of interdependence between Mexico and California. Mexico is the first market for California exports; California, the primary importer of Mexican goods. The NAFTA free trade agreement addressed capital investment and technology, but the labor relationship remains unsettled. American demand for illegal drugs and weapons illegally smuggled from the U.S. are two areas of concern in relations between Mexico and the U.S.

April 15, 2011 – Resurgent Russia

Lee Kerschner, Vice-Chancellor Emeritus of California State University, discussed Russia’s current goals. After the collapse of the USSR and disintegration of the Soviet empire, a former KGB officer became prime minister, president, and prime minister again, leading to a resurgence of Russian strength, a determination to keep Russia itself together, and a focus on its “near abroad.” The questions now are: Will Western Europe seek new alliances with a resurgent Russia? Will that give Poland and Baltic nations heart failure?

Thursday, April 7, 2011 - Indonesia

Donald K. Emmerson, Director of the Southeast Asia Forum at Stanford, explained that, although Muslim-majority Indonesia became a democracy more than a decade ago, no Islamist party has done well enough in a national election to lead the government. In Indonesia, ostensibly religious politicians behave much as their secular counterparts do.

Dr. Emmerson compared the unrest that has swept parts of the Arab world with the stability in Indonesia and suggested lessons to be learned from Indonesia.

FIRST QUARTER 2011 PROGRAMS

March 24, 2011

This evening at Spring Lake Village found Robert and Dayna Baer, both former CIA operatives,  presenting their personal story of life as CIA agents in the Middle East, describing "how the intelligence game actually works and the compromises it asks of those who try to play by its rules."  They promoted their new book, The Company We Keep, which reviews describe as beautifully capturing the murky world they lived and worked in for years.

March 11, 2011

Jean Charles Boisset spoke during a luncheon March 11 at La Gare Restaurant. 

He is president of Boisset Family Estates,the third largest wines-and-sprits 

business in France and among the top 25 in the U.S. Jean Charles discussed  

management of his far-flung wineries, his organic or biodynamic farming practices, 

his quest for premium product quality, and his packaging innovations that reduce 

a wine’s environmental impact.  http://www.boissetfamilyestates.com/

March 1, 2011

Suzanne Spaulding spoke on the topic: “Spying on the Homefront: Domestic Terrorism and the Constitution.” Ms. Spaulding’s background as a Washington attorney specializing in national security matters presented the audience with a unique insight into the subject of domestic terrorism and the role of the U.S. government in prosecuting offenders. She opened her remarks by citing statistics showing the minimal number of actual attacks and prosecutions of domestic terrorism in the homeland. Her point was that our public discourse often makes these issues more dramatic and consequential than they really are. Still, legislative actions at the state level, along with inflammatory discourse about “banning sharia law” are examples of the exaggerated responses to the perceived threat of domestic terrorism in many states.  

Indeed, there is still evidence of an on-line effort to recruit and radicalize disenchanted youth into committing acts of violence within the United States. Therefore, our government is working to reduce these threats by collaborating together with parents in local Somali and other Muslim communities to help identify and prevent their young people from being drawn in by the terrorist rhetoric to commit acts of violence. Instead, we are creating our own American narrative to combat the terrorist message and to undermine its validity. Examples of this counter effort include statistics showing more Muslims are killed by terrorist acts than non-Muslims.

However, we still have other issues to address within our own country that are not as helpful in stemming the thrust of the terrorist narrative. Topics such as Guantanamo Bay confinement, military tribunals, and the Patriot Act are difficult subjects for us to reconcile with our efforts to present an alternative picture of democratic values and human rights that challenge the terrorist message.

At the end of the day, Ms. Spaulding suggests that protecting ourselves against the threat of domestic terrorism is an exercise in “risk management.” We must try to identify and preclude the highest risks of domestic violence while accepting that there can never to a 100% solution to this threat. And framing the overall issue as one of “national security” versus “civil liberties” is not an effective threat mitigation strategy. Rather preserving civil liberties is essential to our national security.

February 12, 2011

December 3, 2010

Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at U.C. Berkeley, discussed “The Euro Arena: Phoenix or Fantasy” at the Quail Inn. The goal in introducing the Euro, he explained, was to have a free trade area and reduced economic risk to European Union (EU) members by having a common currency. Introduced in 1999, the Euro today is used in 17 countries.

The problems arise when the Euro, which is a German-style stable currency with low interest rates, is used in countries with a history of currency inflation and high interest rates. The result in such countries in 2000 was a rapid increase in unfunded government spending and consumer credit consumption, as well as higher labor costs and lower economic output. For example, Ireland experienced a housing price bubble, and its government-guaranteed bank loans created a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) debt of 14% while that of the United States is 5% of GDP.

The remedy for countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain is severe fiscal cuts in government spending as opposed to currency devaluation. Ireland has cut government spending by 3% of GDP. Unfortunately, this causes consumers to constrain their spending and causes a downward spiral of the country’s economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) dictates lending and economic recovery terms to countries in need of a bailout; however, the IMF is the prime lender that receives payment with interest ahead of other lenders.

Dr. Eichengreen is optimistic that the economically depressed countries of the EU will work out their problems over the next five to seven years. Their only sound alternative is to stay within the EU and not establish their own inflation-financed currency to replace the Euro.

In a spirited question/answer session, Dr. Eichengreen stated that the EU has a political will to bail out the economically depressed countries, the UK will not migrate to the Euro in the near term, and Russia will not join the EU. Turkey is taking steps to join the EU.

November 12

Professor Nuket Kardam of the Monterey Institute of International Studies discussed Turkey and its women at the Hilton Hotel Sonoma Ballroom on 11/12/10. This program was co-sponsored with the local chapter of AAUW (American Association of University
 Women.)   

Professor Kardam captivated the audience with stories about the multi-ethnicity of her own family -- a Greek grandmother, a Muslim grandfather, a Kurdish adoptive cousin, an Armenian distant relative -- and likened this family background to the whole of Turkey, a country submerged in many different ethnicities. She admitted that the country is culturally male dominated, yet she feels that women are becoming more and more active in the Turkish world today. The present pro-Islamic government is trying to maintain balance in all things. The Kurdish population continues to fight for its own independence, and this presents a problem.

Turkey has become the most successful Middle Eastern country in commerce, producing furniture, appliances, shoes, and televisions, and is the world’s largest exporter of cement.  

Though Turkey continues to fight to enter the EU nation alliance, Professor Kardam feels that perhaps Turkey is more comfortable remaining aloof, pursuing friendship with Iran, its close neighbor. Turkey is pro-Palestinian, yet has a diplomatic governmental office dedicated to Israeli affairs. She ended by stating, “Turkey wishes to become an EU nation, but perhaps the EU really needs Turkey more.”

Oct 29, 2010

Jonathan Showe, author of Cuba Rising, gave a very well-received luncheon talk at the Fountaingrove Hotel on the topic “Cuba Today.”  An audience of over 100 members seemed to also enjoy the amenities of the site at our first meeting at this location.

After a brief history of Cuba's role on the world stage, particularly during the past 50 years of Castro rule (overlapping 11 U.S. presidents!), Showe contrasted interesting statistics about Cuba today (for example, longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality rates than the U.S.) with the deplorable economic situation. As an example of the latter, Showe mentioned that a driver he used was a neurosurgeon who could make more money on that day as a driver than in a month as a physician! Showe attributed much of that problem to the longstanding U.S. embargo and denial of Cuba’s participation in international trade/banking institutions. The embargo is "leaky" but was supported in the last U.N. vote by only three countries -- the U.S., Israel, and Palau. (Knowing the latter fact helped former WACSC president Bob Kirk win a recently "imported" Havana cigar.)

Showe expressed moderate optimism that the time is ripe for improved relations between the two countries, especially in January 2013 when both presidential terms expire. Such improvement might begin with further softening of travel limits on Cuban “expats,” easing of the travel ban on U.S. citizens, and gradual relaxation of the economic embargo. A postal treaty, improved aviation relations, and a perhaps difficult extradition treaty might follow. Enabling Cuba to regain its place in multilateral organizations might be easier at first than full normalization of bilateral relations. 

October 14, 2010

Larry Rohter gave an evening presentation at Spring Lake Village titled "Brazil on the Rise".

Brazil, the 8^th largest economy in the world, is the 4^th largest creditor of the U.S. and may well surpass the U.S. in 10-15 years as leading food producer. Rohter gave a fact-filled program as he traced Brazil’s development from ’72 to the present, from  military dictatorship growing coffee and sugar to a democracy with airplanes, autos, auto parts, and soybeans its primary exports.

In 1994 the inflation that had plagued Brazil was stopped by Cardoso. The resulting stability allowed the poor and middle class to become consumers whose purchases would boost industry into an upward trajectory that has lasted 16 years. In 2003 “Lula,” the left-wing son of a peasant, was elected president and continued the successful fiscal policies.

Rohter explains Brazilians have shown a knack for finding niches that allow them to prosper. They are well situated in agriculture, energy production, industry, and natural resources. The 1000-mile-wide savannah has been made arable and temperate crops modified to thrive in a tropical climate that can support two to three crops a year. The Amazon watershed supplies agriculture and hydropower. Sugarcane is converted into ethanol for Brazil’s flex-fuel motors, and both are exported. Enormous oil and gas fields discovered off shore make Brazil the 8^th largest supplier to the U.S. Mid-sized aircraft used by airlines for commuter flights are manufactured in Brazil, and every major auto company has production facilities there. Iron ore, bauxite, and timber are shipped to China and converted to products for the U.S.

The 10/31 election is the first since military rule without Cardoso or Lula. Rohter suspects the winner will continue on the same economic path. Future challenges? Building physical and human infrastructure needed for continued growth; controlling crime, particularly in the favelas; hosting the coming World Cup and Olympics; and maintaining the Amazon rain forest as a functioning entity. Rohter’s book Brazil on the Rise (2010) is a guide to understanding Brazil.

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New Books Published by WACSC Members

“Pitcairn Island, the Bounty Mutineers and Their Descendants” by Dr. Robert Kirk

This is a riveting and revealing record of the Bounty mutineers and their forging of a society with the native Polynesians (1789) on a tiny “fly-speck” of an island in the South Pacific, the smallest inhabited island in the world!

After Captain Bligh and other shipmates were set adrift in a launch, the remaining crew came upon Pitcairn Island. There they survived disease, evacuation, and even a dictatorship. Author Kirk artfully captures the centuries of change that occurred through world-wide attention and In-attention. This was a community of people who remained loyal, proud, and determined. The reader will even learn the origin of “three square meals a day” and “the cat’s out of the bag.”

This is the first “full” written history of Pitcairn Island up to the present time. It tells of the incredible people, the tragedies and ancestral triumphs of the mutineer’s descendents. The future of this now British Colony is in question.

You’ll learn of the religious influences, the crop sharing, the ravages of nature that all combined to bring this small island into the 21st century. (The book can be ordered on Amazon or from any bookstore). Review by Nancy Broomhead.

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"The Landscape of Time" by Lois Foyt and Jon Foyt
(Baltimore: Publish America, 2009)

At a recent book signing event at Barnes and Noble on Santa Rosa's Fourth Street, WACSC members Lois and Jon Foyt quickly sold out all copies of their eighth novel, The Landscape of Time. Lois and Jon moved to Oakmont from Santa Fe a couple of years ago. Both Stanford graduates, they are art dealers when not penning fiction; in fact,  their gorgeous home is filled with museum-quality European and Asian bronzes. The Foyts are a fascinating couple, and their novel is well worth reading. Most of their previous books were set in the Southwest, but Jon traveled to Syracuse, New York, to research for "Landscape." The setting is the Erie Canal in the early 1800s -- and today.
Columbia doctoral candidate Josh Foreman is searching for a dissertation topic. His grandfather dies, he travels to the ancestral mansion in Syracuse to settle the estate, meets a cast of characters including the woman of his dreams. Not only does his dissertation topic come into focus, but he learns deep and compelling family secrets. Josh's journey is one of self-discovery and discovery of his roots as he learns about his grandfather's deeds and the father from whom he has been alienated. 

"Landscape" is based on historical fact. Intriguingly, the Foyts refer the reader to eight footnotes, letters and diary entries from 1797 to 1825 which provide essential historic background to the story. One must read these notes carefully to see, for example, how Governor DeWitt Clinton was seduced into promoting the Erie Canal. This is a compelling book. Review by Dr. Robert Kirk