Late  News

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Reviews of Past Programs

July 16, 2010

July 16 found Dr. Nat Colletta at La Gare giving WACSC a comparison of the World Bank peace-making processes in Uganda and Mindanao, explaining how social and economic development can be used as instruments in war-to-peace transitions.                     

In the 1990’s, after 20 years of internal conflict, Uganda agreed to adjust its budget expenditures away from security and into development, in exchange for help for  combatants in the form of transitional family support, training, and job counseling and placement.  40,000 fighters and their dependents were re-integrated into a normal civilian life. The success of this venture changed the World Bank from an institution that was losing its portfolio of countries, because it avoided existing conflict, to one whose agenda included preventing conflict.

The present Mindanao secessionist movement is religion and identity driven.  By reframing the discourse, Dr. Colletta hopes to implement new agreements that trade disarmament for (1) economic benefits and (2) shared security responsibility of the Moro ancestral area by both the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, with an external accountability organization available to monitor complaints.

A lively Q and A session followed in which Colletta suggested that his success involves using local participants for feedback, using surveys of combatants to find what they need to get on with their lives, and setting up programs that get cash to the people involved, not the governments.

June 18,2010

On June 18, Dr. Kori Schake talked with WACSC about a “More Effective Policy Towards Iran”. Dr. Schake is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and an associate professor of International security at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. 

For at least the last 17 years, Iran has had undisclosed military developments, as discovered by data smuggled out by Iranian dissidents. We also know that Iran has 5300 lbs. of low-enriched uranium and several undeclared nuclear facilities, and that many of the nuclear programs are linked to religious sites. It would be an enormous task to take out all Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially those on sacred grounds. In addition, any attack on Iran would solidify its citizens. A purely military action would not be a good option.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has declared Iran in violation of five UN Security Council resolutions and has expressed deep doubts about the Iranian claim that its nuclear program is only for energy purposes. Offers from Russia, France, the U.S., China and Britain to develop a consortium for enriching Iranian reactor fuel outside the country, have been declined by Iran. Because Turkey and Brazil believe that they are making progress without further UN sanctions, they cast the only negative votes against the UN Security Council resolution, passed in early June, to increase sanctions against Iran. The vote was not unanimous, so the resolution does not carry the symbolic weight that the U.S. had desired. There is little belief that the sanctions, mainly against military purchases, will have much impact.

The current Iranian government has cracked down on protesters and denied them their universal rights, and has continued to support terrorism and undermine peace between Israelis and Palestinians. As long as President Ahmadinejad is in power, it is unlikely that the Iranian government will agree to open up its entire nuclear program to inspection, allow an open, democratic society, or welcome Western powers at the negotiation table.

Dr. Schake proposes an integrated politico-military strategy. We should reach out to the Iranian people directly, talking past the government. After Tehran, the largest Iranian city in the world is Los Angeles. We should use this resource to build businesses and relationships directly with the citizens in Iran. We should encourage and publicize defections, be involved with punitive measures against banks that are linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and support programs such as Voice of America to reach the ordinary Iranian citizen. 

June 7, 2010

On Monday, June 7, 2010 James Craig discussed "The Most Important Century in Human History, and its Consequences for the World of Today and Tomorrow"

Have you ever wondered what the most important century in human history is? James Craig was convincing in arguing for the fifth century BCE (B.C.), suggesting it, of all centuries, had the greatest influence on the greatest number of people for the longest period of time. German philosopher Karl Jaspers termed it the Axial Age (the axis between “before” and “after”) and identified its four centers of culture –Ancient Greece, the Middle East, India, and China.  In that century (1) Greece laid the groundwork for Socrates and his progeny, democracy, and Pythagoras’ search for divine order; (2) The Middle East saw creation of the Persian Empire, which became the dominant force in the area for 200 years, and saw Jerusalem destroyed, its people taken captive and adjusting by changing their religious practices; (3) India produced the Buddha, who taught enlightenment and introspection in place of external ritual; and (4) China produced Confucius, whose teachings on how to get along peaceably became the basis of society for the next 2000 years.

Craig values history as important in order to understand present relationships anywhere in the world.  He sees the world developing into a global society needing global consciousness as conflicts arise between tribal/communal values and individualism. He recommends reading The Great Transformation by Karen Armstrong. 

May 21, 2010

On Friday, May 21, 2010, Mikkal Herberg discussed changes in the world oil supply and demand during the last twenty years, when the price of oil rose from $19 a barrel to $88, to $247, dropped to $32, and rose to its current price at approximately $69 a barrel.

The steep price increase was caused by a tremendous increase in demand by China and other Asian countries, while at the same time OPEC cut supply by four million barrels a day and political instability severely impacted oil production in Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq. Approximately 80% of world oil reserves are under the control of nations; 7% is under the control of commercial companies. Any disruption caused by political problems or natural disasters such as Katrina severely impact oil production.

As oil prices increased, world-wide consumer demand for oil declined. Then a recession in the world economy further cut back the demand and caused oil prices to drop. In the spring of 2008 the Dow Jones average dropped to approximately 6700. At that time production exceeded demand by about 5 million barrels a day, and oil prices dropped to the low $30 range. As the world economy started to recover, demand increased for oil, and prices have increased to around $69.

 The current world oil production capacity is approximately 85 million barrels per day. The future should bring an increased demand from China and Asia equivalent to that produced by Saudi Arabia today (8 million barrels per day). Europe and the United States will probably experience much lower increases in demand. Iraq has tremendous capacity and, if the capital investments are made, could be producing an additional 8 million barrels of oil per day for future markets.

 In a lively question/answer session, Mikkal Herberg suggested that all energy production alternatives to oil should be aggressively pursued. However, no major advances are expected within ten years. The presentation ended with a discussion of some of the design faults and safety failures of the British Petroleum oil well that is leaking into the Gulf.  

May 6, 2010 

Dr Pregenzer began her talk with summaries of the Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the new START treaty, and the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, but the focus was on the recent call by the Obama administration for movement toward a "nuclear free world." She emphasized the different motivations for the nonproliferation community -- moral imperative, status quo, ensuring international security.

The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review re-defines the most serious threat to U.S. national security as nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism, as opposed to massive nuclear attack by a hostile state. It seeks to reduce salience of nuclear weapons to our security and commits the U.S. to the vision of a world without nuclear weapons. It proposes continued, deeper reductions in nuclear weapons in coordination with Russia and eventually other countries, especially China.

Dr. Pregenzer discussed the U.S. conventional military superiority and its impact on those seeking nonproliferation. She raised the question of whether the movement toward a nuclear-free world was logical and/or realistic. Other nuclear armed states except possibly the U.K. do not share that vision. The challenge is to take concrete steps toward a world free of nuclear weapons while maintaining a safe, secure, and effective arsenal.

A stimulating question/answer period followed, during which Dr. Pregenzer described the U.S. involvement in helping to secure the Chinese nuclear arsenal prior to the Olympics and the extent to which the U.S. is involved in securing and dismantling former Soviet Union weapons, with material recycled to use in nuclear power plants.    

April 29, 2010

On April 29, Dr. Stefan Halper discussed the future of China and its relationship with the U.S. Dr. Halper is a Senior Fellow at the Centre of International Studies and a Senior Research Fellow at Magdalene College, Cambridge, England. His latest book, The Beijing Consensus: How China’s Authoritarian Model will Dominate the 21^st Century, focuses on the differences between China and western governments in management of their economic growth. China’s focus on rapid economic growth has resulted in some inequities among its citizens, and it is critical for the Communist Party to ensure that the benefits of this growth -- increased standard of living, better housing, better employment opportunities -- reach all the citizens. To accomplish this, China must sustain at least an 8% annual growth, and it needs energy and raw materials from other countries.

China’s priority is to sustain or increase their economic growth; it has no concern about human rights or corruption or the environment. It does not put conditions, as do western countries, on dictators of the countries that have oil, copper, or other resources necessary to its continued growth. With its very large hard currency reserves ($2.4 trillion), it is able to make low-interest loans, build hospitals, provide education, and make large payments to government officials in these third world countries that have resources it needs. And it does this without conditions, unlike the World Bank, IMF, or western countries. The only requirement is that it gets the resources it needs in a timely and efficient manner. 

This approach is very appealing to third world countries, a viable alternative to the “Washington consensus,” or western way of doing things. This is the new way of going capitalist while remaining authoritarian. China has become the new role model for these countries, achieving strong economic growth but keeping the people out of government. Unlike the U.S. and other Western governments, the China model does not require the government to listen to the people or the press. 

Halper believes that Washington needs to create a single place where the various interests come together to develop a more uniform approach to the China situation. Because there are business interests, human rights interests, environmental interests, etc., we do not have a coherent approach to how we deal with China. Halper believes that a central clearing house would enable us to better meet the China challenge.

April 16, 2010

E. Bruce Reynolds summarized the last 60 years of turmoil in Thailand (11 coups, 18 constitutions) and said the most recent difficulties, in particular, reflected conflict between “have’s” and “have not’s.”

With criticism of government rampant after the 1997 financial crisis, Thaksin, a wealthy businessman, used populist programs to win support from “have not’s,” becoming prime minister after 2001 elections.  Thaksin’s enemies, the middle and upper classes, claim he bought votes, concentrated power in his hands while enriching himself. After also alienating King and army, Thaksin was ousted as prime minister in a 2006 coup. A jail sentence for corruption keeps him abroad, but he retains a large following (Red Shirts) despite forced disbandment of his political party. His supporters fared best in 2007, the last election.

When in 2008 the prime minister was forced out on conflict-of-interest charges, Thaksin’s brother-in-law became PM. The Anti-Thaksin movement (Yellow Shirts) responded by occupying the airport to force him to resign. His party was disbanded on corruption charges.

Abhisit (anti-Thaksin Democrat Party) became prime minister. Red Shirts consider Abhisit anti-democratic and not legitimate because there was no election, and they disrupted the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in 2009. Their 2010 protests, to force Abhisit’s resignation, have left 24 dead and hundreds injured in a clash with police and soldiers. Now Abhisit’s party has been accused of corruption and may face disbandment, too.

What next? Reynolds believes many Bangkok residents are tired of the Red Shirts and want a coup to restore order. The king, a stabilizing influence in the past, is now old and ill; his son, not respected.  With sides so polarized, it is hard to reach a settlement. The name Thailand, “land of smiles,” has for now become a misnomer.

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New Books Published by WACSC Members

“Pitcairn Island, the Bounty Mutineers and Their Descendants” by Dr. Robert Kirk

This is a riveting and revealing record of the Bounty mutineers and their forging of a society with the native Polynesians (1789) on a tiny “fly-speck” of an island in the South Pacific, the smallest inhabited island in the world!

After Captain Bligh and other shipmates were set adrift in a launch, the remaining crew came upon Pitcairn Island. There they survived disease, evacuation, and even a dictatorship. Author Kirk artfully captures the centuries of change that occurred through world-wide attention and In-attention. This was a community of people who remained loyal, proud, and determined. The reader will even learn the origin of “three square meals a day” and “the cat’s out of the bag.”

This is the first “full” written history of Pitcairn Island up to the present time. It tells of the incredible people, the tragedies and ancestral triumphs of the mutineer’s descendents. The future of this now British Colony is in question.

You’ll learn of the religious influences, the crop sharing, the ravages of nature that all combined to bring this small island into the 21st century. (The book can be ordered on Amazon or from any bookstore). Review by Nancy Broomhead.

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"The Landscape of Time" by Lois Foyt and Jon Foyt
(Baltimore: Publish America, 2009)

At a recent book signing event at Barnes and Noble on Santa Rosa's Fourth Street, WACSC members Lois and Jon Foyt quickly sold out all copies of their eighth novel, The Landscape of Time. Lois and Jon moved to Oakmont from Santa Fe a couple of years ago. Both Stanford graduates, they are art dealers when not penning fiction; in fact,  their gorgeous home is filled with museum-quality European and Asian bronzes. The Foyts are a fascinating couple, and their novel is well worth reading. Most of their previous books were set in the Southwest, but Jon traveled to Syracuse, New York, to research for "Landscape." The setting is the Erie Canal in the early 1800s -- and today.
Columbia doctoral candidate Josh Foreman is searching for a dissertation topic. His grandfather dies, he travels to the ancestral mansion in Syracuse to settle the estate, meets a cast of characters including the woman of his dreams. Not only does his dissertation topic come into focus, but he learns deep and compelling family secrets. Josh's journey is one of self-discovery and discovery of his roots as he learns about his grandfather's deeds and the father from whom he has been alienated. 

"Landscape" is based on historical fact. Intriguingly, the Foyts refer the reader to eight footnotes, letters and diary entries from 1797 to 1825 which provide essential historic background to the story. One must read these notes carefully to see, for example, how Governor DeWitt Clinton was seduced into promoting the Erie Canal. This is a compelling book. Review by Dr. Robert Kirk